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Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.

Latest Articles in this Channel:

  • 01/27/12--14:18: Comment on Who Should Exist? by xxd (chan 1774043)
  • @Robin: Assumption: most profit derives from labor. If profit derived from capital exceeds profit derived from labor but labor is *required* to guide the capital then you could have the situation whereby entertainment sims are very likley in direct contrast to your hobbsian view of EMS having to pay for their very existence with no leisure. But only if the mediocrity principle is true also. If it's not then you are most assuredly right in your competitive winner-takes-all scenario.

  • 01/27/12--14:24: Comment on Who Should Exist? by xxd (chan 1774043)
  • Plenty creature exist today that don't defend themselves against being eaten. They are domestic cattle who have outsourced their defense to humans. Humans eat them but they are protected from being eaten by other predators instead of humans. Outsourcing specialization is nearly always more efficient. In our economy, we have outsourced the military and the police to the government who (hopefully) are lower cost than everyone having to do it for themselves.

  • 01/27/12--15:22: Comment on Who Wants Kid $ Insure? by Daniel (chan 1774043)
  • Your brother has more control over his employment than getting hit by a car. Beyond that, I don't see a relevant difference. You get insurance against being hit by a car so it's not as bad if you're unlucky enough to get hit by a car. You get insurance against being a bad worker so it's not as bad if you're unlucky enough to be a bad worker.

  • 01/27/12--15:24: Comment on Who Wants Kid $ Insure? by Peter Gerdes (chan 1774043)
  • > This is why people like Romney want low taxes on capital gains and interest and high taxes on earned income. No, he wants that for two reasons: Primarily he wants it because he thinks it will help him become the president. Secondly, he wants it because he doesn't want to fork over his cash but doesn't want the government to go bankrupt and this is the easiest way to do that. Your reasoning should have him actually favoring taxes that hit the other rich people but avoid him. No matter what tax policy is adopted the middle class won't even come close to his level of money so they don't threaten his positional prestige/influence regardless of tax policy. The people it's most in his interest to beat down are those who are also rich and can present real competition for (money based) influence/prestige. Ultimately, however, I doubt Romney really thinks that much about money as a positional good nor spends time scheming to raise his position. Like everyone else he probably just finds it unpleasant to fork over his money to the government and also like everyone else finds whatever justification is convenient to explain why he should be paying less.

  • 01/27/12--15:26: Comment on Unspeakable Arrogance by Peter Gerdes (chan 1774043)
  • Wow, are you coming on to Hanson?

  • 01/27/12--15:30: Comment on Who Talks Politics? by fburnaby (chan 1774043)
  • I've almost entirely stopped discussing politics within the last few years. This hasn't been an explicit decision, but I suspect that it's a result of the memeplex I've obtained from LW & OB and reading philosophy and studying an M.Sc. It's now difficult have a political conversation without wanting to stop and try to operationalize the claims under discussion. This does generally seem to bore people.

  • 01/27/12--18:27: Comment on Far Idealism Hypocrisy by richard silliker (chan 1774043)
  • Far Idealism Hypocrisy Hypocrisy or just playing devil's advocate?

  • 01/27/12--22:32: Comment on Unspeakable Arrogance by mjgeddes (chan 1774043)
  • I cannot imagine who Hanson is talking about, but I promise I will search far and wide for these stupid people who dare to imagine they can share a room, blog, stage etc. with such towering intellects as ourselves. Let us find the stupids and flog them!

  • 01/27/12--23:17: Comment on Far Idealism Hypocrisy by Grognor (chan 1774043)
  • Playing Devil's Advocate or just not being conscientious/strategic enough to achieve one's own far-mode goals?

  • 01/28/12--00:23: Comment on Who Talks Politics? by John (chan 1774043)
  • If there are different types of signals, it's possible that they have different relationships with intimacy. For example, non-intimate political disagreement could be aggressive posturing ("my tribe should rule") whereas, within intimate spheres, disagreement is more about expressing the signals embedded in our beliefs. Telling a disagreeing stranger that we should soak the rich is aggressive. Telling my disagreeing sister shows my intelligence and compassion for the poor. After all, within intimate spheres, close ties could make aggressive signals less threatening without decreasing the utility of non-aggressive signals--changing our behavior, but not because we are signaling less overall.